SnowBrains forecast: 1 foot or more possible for New Zealand this week

1 credit

Early this week, a strong winter storm will roll across New Zealand, dumping more than 1 foot in many resorts across the country. The highest totals will be located along the mountains in the central east of the South Island.

Accumulation will begin on the North Island Monday morning in the afternoon. Since the storm system is carrying a lot of air and moisture from the tropics, the onset of the storm will begin with rain and will persist for some time, particularly at lower elevations. Temperatures on the North Island will be an issue throughout the event, which will likely prevent a large buildup. The snow that will accumulate will be quite heavy and difficult to ski. Check out the Ruapehu ensemble temperature forecast (forecast at 6306ft, 1922m):

Credit: clamalo.github.io/model/model.html

The South Island, however, looks much better! Winds with the initial surge of moisture will begin from the north, but as the storm system passes over the island to the southeast, these winds will coil and eventually exit from the east on Tuesday. evening to Wednesday morning. This is absolutely ideal for the eastern flank of the South Island mountains, as the air will be adiabatically cooled as it is orographically lifted up the mountains, producing optimum conditions for snow accumulation. . Additionally, this specific wind direction means that there is no terrain between the moisture source and the moisture, so water vapor in the atmosphere will not be “blown out” beforehand. .

Optimal lower level winds for snow accumulation along the eastern flank of the New Zealand Alps. 1 credit

Temperatures on the South Island will be more conducive to good snow conditions. However, this storm still arrives hot and humid, so always be prepared for difficult snow conditions. Bases at some southern island resorts may still see mixed precipitation (rain, snow, and sleet) throughout the storm, but upper elevations should remain clear of any type of precipitation other than snow. snow.

In terms of totals, here’s what I see as a reasonable forecast by Wednesday morning:

  • Mount Hutt: 12-17″ (30-43)
  • Cardrone: 1-3″ (2-7cm)
  • Noteworthy: 0-2″ (0-5cm)
  • Acute taper: 1-2″ (2-5cm)
  • Mount Dobsonian: 11-17″ (28-43cm)
  • Ruapehu Turoa: 3-6″ (7-15cm)

By Wednesday morning, the weather will dry out considerably and precipitation rates will decrease, but the weather will remain cloudy for the rest of the week. Another small storm looks likely next week, but details remain very unclear at this time. Stay tuned for another forecast later this week with an updated forecast and extended outlook (what conditions look like for the next few weeks).

About George Dailey

Check Also

NSW and Victoria weather forecast predicts rain, winds and flooding

Weather is expected to continue to get wetter for interior NSW and the alpine regions …